Category: Commodities

Commodities

Tuesday links: reversion to the mean

Market Expert Dec 18, 2025

BooksThree investment book recommendations including: "What I Learned About Investing From Darwin" by Pulak Prasad. (flyoverstocks.com)A positive review for Andrew Ross Sorkin's new book "1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History — and How It Shattered a Nation." (advisorperspectives.com)Lessons learned from 2025 book reading including 'Culture compounds.' (mastersinvest.com)ETFsBlackrock ($BLK) just launched the iShares Total USD Fixed Income Market ETF ($BTOT). (riabiz.com)BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard did little to support activist nominees in proxy fights this year. (semafor.com)AIWhat happens when a big data center comes to town. (sherwood.news)Oracle ($ORCL) debt is getting re-rated, and not in a good way. (tomtunguz.com)What's behind the decline in Coreweave ($CRWV) stock? (wsj.com)VC funding for AI in 2025, the charts. (news.crunchbase.com)Poverty lineNick Maggiulli, "Regardless of what you believe about the true poverty line, it’s fair to say that it’s far

Personal finance links: a lack of spending

Commodities

Wednesday links: running out of time

Market Expert Dec 18, 2025

StrategyInvestors are suckers for a good growth story. (behaviouralinvestment.com)Diversification as 'survival insurance.' (safalniveshak.com)Investors will only wait so long for a factor to pay off. (klementoninvesting.substack.com)FinanceMedline ($MDLN) is the biggest IPO of 2025. (cnbc.com)How JP Morgan ($JPM) has transformed their balance sheet. (ft.com)Robinhood ($HOOD) is rolling out even more prediction market functionality. (axios.com)How prop trading firms entice new users. (bloomberg.com)Fund managementWhy is the Bluerock Private Real Estate Fund ($BPRE) trading at a big discount to NAV? (giftarticle.ft.com)Virtus ($VRTS) is pushing deeper into private markets. (citywire.com)Small 401(k) plans typically pay higher fees. Providers have come up with a 'solution.' (morningstar.com)StartupsNow Amazon ($AMZN) could invest in OpenAI. (techcrunch.com)Databricks is reportedly raising capital at a $134 billion valuation. (wsj.com)Waymo is looking to raise capital at a $100 billion val

Commodities

Monday links: collective human intelligence

Market Expert Dec 16, 2025

MarketsHow inflation regimes affect returns for stocks and bonds. (awealthofcommonsense.com)The Fed does not control the long end of the curve. (advisorperspectives.com)The four O's of market bubbles including 'over-ownership.' (ft.com)FinanceCharles Schwab ($SCHW) is reluctant to follow competitors into high octane offerings like prediction markets. (wsj.com)Why you should be way of EGCs, or Emerging Growth Companies, many of which trade be $1 a share. (wsj.com)Fund managementBlackRock ($BLK) now managed $80 billion for Citigroup’s private banking clients globally. (wealthmanagement.com)Invesco ($IVZ) isn't done with recalcitrant $QQQ shareholders. (ft.com)JP Morgan ($JPM) is creating a tokenized money market fund. (wsj.com)EconomyNational homebuilder confidence has been negative for 20 months straight. (calculatedriskblog.com)Why 2% inflation may no longer be an option. (macroeconomicpolicynexus.substack.com)Why high prices continue to impact American consumers. (crr.bc.edu)Earlier

Commodities

Sunday links: concentration of big winners

Market Expert Dec 15, 2025

MarketsMarket concentration in a bull market is a feature, not a bug. (downtownjoshbrown.com)Valuations don't tell you much about what happens the next year. (tker.co)How have Wall Street strategists done with their price forecasts? (chartkidmatt.com)The week in the degenerate economy. (howardlindzon.com)CompaniesSpaceX is buying employee shares at a $800 billion valuation. (cnbc.com)Failed media mergers are the norm, not the exception. (wapo.st)Fund managementMichael Sidgmore, "The asset management industry is in the early innings of the convergence of public and private." (altgoesmainstream.substack.com)We need more fund fee transparency, not less. (morningstar.com)ImmigrationNow legal immigration has ground to a halt. (axios.com)What the numbers say about the economic impact of refugees on the American economy. (wsj.com)A profile of Gregory Bovino of the US Border Patrol. (chicago.suntimes.com)Crime and punishmentIRS tax prosecutions have plunged in 2025. (yahoo.com)Apparently mortg

Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Commodities

Sunday links: hedging and speculation

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

MarketsWhen a company with Time or Warner in the name gets acquired, look out. (ft.com)Be wary of IPOs raising less than $15 million. (barrons.com)StrategyBoring investing still works. (awealthofcommonsense.com)How to consume Wall Street strategist content. (tker.co)Are index funds to blame for high stock prices? (humbledollar.com)DegeneracyWhat's the common thread among options trading, sports betting, and memecoins? (dopaminemarkets.com)This week in the degenerate economy including prediction markets tying up with media companies. (youtube.com)Prediction markets are setting up their own proprietary market making units. (advisorperspectives.com)Crypto2025 was supposed to be the year of crypto. What happened? (giftarticle.ft.com)Why this bank lowered its price target on Strategy ($MSTR) by some 60%. (ft.com)ETFsConvertible bond ETFs are having a year. (etf.com)Vanguard is stepping up its new ETF activity. (thinkadvisor.com)HollywoodCan Netflix ($NFLX) avoid ruining HBO? (nytimes.com)Th

Commodities

Monday links: the threat of YouTube

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

MarketsA look at the new MSCI All Country Public + Private Equity Index. (axios.com)A look at the historical returns of the Nasdaq 100. (awealthofcommonsense.com)Lower borrowing costs are available to smaller funds. (mailchi.mp)CryptoInvestors in iShares Bitcoin ETF Trust ($IBIT) haven't fared as well as Bitcoin itself. (morningstar.com)The 'digital gold' argument for Bitcoin looks suss. (cnbc.com)Strategy ($MSTR) isn't done buying Bitcoin. (theblock.co)DegeneracyRobinhood ($HOOD) is entering Indonesia. (cnbc.com)If you put a real-money casino on people's phones they play...a lot. (nytimes.com)More and more financial products are removed from reality. (mojo3324106.substack.com)Berkshire HathawayA rare executive shakeup at Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A). (cnbc.com)Berkshire has 'cleared the table' for CEO to-be Greg Abel (kingswell.io)NetflixThe battle for Warner Bros. ($WBD) is now public as Paramount Skydance ($PSKY) launches an offer. (variety.com)YouTube is THE threat to Netflix ($NFLX

Commodities

Tuesday links: how you think

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

MarketsNo matter how you slice it, long term capital market returns have been good. (awealthofcommonsense.com)How to read a market strategist's year-end report. (behaviouralinvestment.com)What the heck happened to NFTs? (ritholtz.com)Retail traders are here to stay. (giftarticle.ft.com)TechnologySpaceX is planning to go public in 2026. (bloomberg.com)Apple ($AAPL) stock marches to beat of its own drummer. (sherwood.news)Why IBM is buying Confluent ($CFLT). (tomtunguz.com)AIData center operators are already shifting their siting strategies. (nytimes.com)Paul Krugman talks AI with Paul Kedrosky. (paulkrugman.substack.com)How AI demand is boosting energy growth. (axios.com)A Q&A with Tim O'Reilly on AI. (bigthink.com)AI slop is flooding social media. (nytimes.com)GlobalTurning our backs on the rest of the free world seems like an own goal. (paulkrugman.substack.com)Australia is rolling out the first ban on social media for children under 16. (ft.com)Why diamond mines in Northwest Canada a

Commodities

Wednesday links: AI unknowns

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

FinanceLudovic Phalippou and William Magnuson, "In seeking access to public capital without accepting public-company obligations, private equity may have exposed itself to a much more demanding form of accountability." (giftarticle.ft.com)Private equity is now in the business of college sports, via the University of Utah. (axios.com)Biotech M&A is booming. (giftarticle.ft.com)AIHow far has OpenAI fallen behind? (theatlantic.com)Meta ($META) is pivoting away from open source AI models. (bloomberg.com)AI makes up a growing percentage of VC investment. (blogs.cfainstitute.org)MediaBig media mergers don't have a great track record. (variety.com)For consumers it's hard to see upside to either deal for Warner Bros. ($WBD). (theirrelevantinvestor.com)Has Netflix ($NFLX) changed its tune on theaters? (spyglass.org)Streaming prices are going only in one direction. (flowingdata.com)RestaurantsHow fast-growing Jollibee is different than other fast food chains. (theatlantic.com)Cracker Barrel cust

Personal finance links: your emotional life

Commodities

Thursday links: a lack of trust

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

Investment writingNick's favorite investment writing from 2025 including 'The Last Decision by the World’s Leading Thinker on Decisions' by Jason Zweig. (ofdollarsanddata.com)Book recommendations from Meb Faber's podcast guests including "Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future" by Dan Wang. (news.theideafarm.com)Prediction marketsOn the Kalshi-ification of everything. (fastcompany.com)If prediction markets are manipulable, do we want news networks relying on them? (slate.com)Gemini ($GEMI) is jumping into the prediction markets game. (theblock.co)CompaniesDisney ($DIS) has thrown in with OpenAI. (spyglass.org)How Ted Combs came to run JP Morgan's ($JPM) new Security and Resiliency investment fund. (giftarticle.ft.com)Eli Lilly's ($LLY) new weight loss drug candidate retatrutide showed big weight loss effects. (biopharmadive.com)EconomyThe Fed has signaled that it will stop shrinking its balance sheet. (investmenttalk.co)When it comes to inflation there is plenty of blame to go