Category: Commodities

Longform links: solidifying your world view

Commodities

Thursday links: the drip of good news

Market Expert Feb 14, 2026

MarketsCredit spreads are tight. (wsj.com)Earnings drive stock prices. (chartkidmatt.com)Why fraud thrives during bull markets. (novelinvestor.com)Prediction marketsHow to solve the prediction markets insider trading problem. (dopaminemarkets.com)Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk prediction markets with new CFTC Chairman Michael Selig. (podcasts.apple.com)Private assetsThe private equity industry is at a crossroads. (capitalallocators.com)The larger the endowment fund, the most they invest in private assets. (ft.com)Asset managementNuveen is buying UK-based asset manager Schroders. (fa-mag.com)The combined Nuveen-Schroders will be the 11th largest asset manager. (giftarticle.ft.com)FoodHershey ($HSY) is investing big in salty snacks. (fooddive.com)What the woes of the fast food industry say about the American economy. (giftarticle.ft.com)Kraft Heinz ($KHZ) is putting its split on hold. (cnbc.com)Technologya16z has an outsized influence on Trump administration AI policy. (bloomberg.

Commodities

Wednesday links: something to gain

Market Expert Feb 12, 2026

MarketsEnergy and materials are the leading sectors YTD. (capitalspectator.com)More evidence that markets move faster than ever. (awealthofcommonsense.com)ForecastingPrediction markets seem to do a good job forecasting economic outcomes. (nytimes.com)AI researchers are now focusing on making predictions. (theatlantic.com)FinanceDoes AI pose a risk to the Bloomberg Terminal? (rupakghose.substack.com)Strive's ($ASST) Bitcoin holdings are underwater. (riabiz.com)Nearly 20% of FTSE companies are run by executives based outside the UK. (ft.com)Private marketsHow does 'NAV squeezing' work? (thealtview.substack.com)Continuation vehicles have changed how private equity does business. (caia.org)Nasdaq has launched Nasdaq Private Capital Indexes to benchmark the performance of private market funds. (wealthmanagement.com)ETFsThe line between active and passive ETFs is blurring. (morningstar.com)If you are going to go active, ETFs are the way. (morningstar.com)ImmigrationAmerican workers are not

Adviser links: a primary information channel

Commodities

Monday links: a world of impermanence

Market Expert Feb 11, 2026

MarketsA look at the track record of bull markets. (morningstar.com)How rising asset prices affect behavior. (behaviouralinvestment.com)How to invest a lump sum. (awealthofcommonsense.com)AIWe will always want humans to do certain jobs. (agglomerations.substack.com)Why AI hasn't replaced radiologists. (ctvnews.ca)DIYers are using AI in legal cases. (axios.com)EconomyAffordability is a real issue. (newsletter.mikekonczal.com)Decelerating shelter prices are a tailwind for inflation. (bonddad.blogspot.com)Where ICE actions are putting a crimp on the economy. (wsj.com)Earlier on Abnormal ReturnsAdviser links: a primary information channel. (abnormalreturns.com)What you missed in our Sunday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)Top clicks last week on Abnormal Returns. (abnormalreturns.com)Don't miss a thing! Sign up for our daily e-mail newsletter. (abnormalreturns.com)Mixed mediaWhy modern society downplays competence. (investing101.substack.com)The Internet is not a singular invention. (om.co)

Commodities

Tuesday links: jobs vs. gyms

Market Expert Feb 11, 2026

Strategy'Buying the dip' sounds better in theory than practice. (moneychangeseverything.substack.com)Why you can't optimize the unknowable. (ofdollarsanddata.com)AIAI is increasing the range of outcomes for companies. (behaviouralinvestment.com)Why BDCs are selling off on fears of stress in the software sector. (ft.com)FinanceDan Rasmussen, "Capital has flowed away from an industry [hedge funds] that has been forced to prove alpha under relentless scrutiny and toward one [private equity] that has largely avoided it." (mailchi.mp)Jump Trading is gaining stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket, in exchange for providing market making services. (theblock.co)The CFTC's Chicago office has essentially be shuttered. (barrons.com)CoffeeMore evidence that coffee (and tea) consumption help reduce the incidence of dementia. (sciencealert.com)Luckin, China’s biggest coffee chain, opened its 30,000th store. (semafor.com)Starbucks ($SBUX) did a big menu makeover. (axios.com)EconomyLabor continues to lose GD

Commodities

Sunday links: a workable balance

Market Expert Feb 9, 2026

MarketsLow vol stocks are different. (wsj.com)A look at the number of brand names stocks down over 50% from their highs. (awealthofcommonsense.com)Josh Brown, "HALO stands for Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence. These are undistruptable companies from an AI standpoint." (downtownjoshbrown.com)SoftwareWhy software investors were taken aback this week. (tker.co)Software stocks are getting crushed, but software itself is only growing. (howardlindzon.com)Software runs on data. Incumbents still own it. (axios.com)What software stocks are pricing in. (tomtunguz.com)Software is not a macro problem. (apolloacademy.com)CryptoIs Bitcoin just software? (trendlabs.com)Crypto tanked. Nobody really knows why. (wsj.com)Inside the web of crypto companies backed by the Trump family and their associates. (wsj.com)There is no World Liberty FInancial without the support of Binance. (nytimes.com)Prediction marketsTraders on prediction markets are wising up. (ft.com)NBA star, Giannis Antetokounmpo now owns a s

Commodities

Friday links: breadth and depth

Market Expert Feb 8, 2026

StrategyVishal Khandewal, "Most investment mistakes aren’t failures of information. They’re failures of judgment" (safalniveshak.com)What makes for an ideal industry to invest in? (fortunefinancialadvisors.com)RIP, FCOJ. (axios.com)CryptoStrategy ($MSTR) changed its name just about a year ago. (trendlabs.com)Bitcoin volatility is the norm. (capitalspectator.com)Prediction marketsA Q&A with Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi. (giftarticle.ft.com)How professional bettors are adjusting to the rise of prediction markets. (bloomberg.com)Will prediction market participants do something more than bet on sports? (theatlantic.com)Are prediction markets and sports books going to remain distinct businesses? (frontofficesports.com)AIA look at just how fast AI demand is growing. (tomtunguz.com)A look the scale of the cloud computing backlog. (sherwood.news)Software stocks are acting as if AI is an existential threat. (newcomer.co)The AI.com domain just changed hands for big bucks. (ft.com)

Longform links: variations in performance

Commodities

Thursday links: early admission

Market Expert Feb 6, 2026

StrategyHow big market moves engage different types of investors. (behaviouralinvestment.com)When it pays to bet on great businesses and just hang on. (permanentequity.com)CryptoHODLers are feeling the pain. (ft.com)Altcoins are feeling the pain. (sherwood.news)Fund managementSpaceX wants to reserve its spot in indices early. (wsj.com)Mutual funds are sitting on a lot of unrealized capital gains. (financial-planning.com)A closed-end fund doing closed-end fund things. (wsj.com)AIIs AI going to disrupt the business of financial data? (wsj.com)How institutional investors use AI. (axios.com)FinancePrivate credit may be more exposed to tech and software than investors think. (tomtunguz.com)KKR ($KKR) is buying Arctos Partners, the sports-focused investment firm. (pitchbook.com)How the art lending market works. (ft.com)GlobalValentina Romei, "The 10-year government bond yields for Greece, Spain and Portugal are lower than for France, the UK and the US." (ft.com)China is working hard to shore

Research links: behavioral inefficiencies

Commodities

Tuesday links: disappearing companies

Market Expert Feb 5, 2026

MarketsNon-US markets are sitting at all-time highs. (trendlabs.com)Defensive stocks led the way in January 2026. (on.spdji.com)VanguardA look at the Vanguard fund fee reductions. (morningstar.com)Is Vanguard doing enough to solve service and tech issues? (riabiz.com)CompaniesElon is merging SpaceX with xAI. (axios.com)Waymo raised $16 billion to scale overseas. (techcrunch.com)Sports gamblingPablo Torre talks with James Surowiecki about the rise of prediction markets. (podcasts.apple.com)The sports media has been transformed by gambling. (niemanlab.org)Sports gambling companies are spending big on DC lobbying. (popular.info)GlobalJust how bad was Brexit for the UK economy? Pretty bad... (econofact.org)How aging societies spend differently. (klementoninvesting.substack.com)The issues between Canada and the U.S. are entirely of one man's making. (publicnotice.co)The why behind the fall in fertility in Latin America. (marginalrevolution.com)SkimpflationShrinkflation has turned into skimp