Category: Commodities

Commodities

Tuesday links: a desire for uncertainty

Market Expert Feb 26, 2026

MarketsAn indicator that shows we are still in the midst of a bull market. (stockmarketmedia.com)It's hard to talk about the stock market without talking about Nvidia ($NVDA). (sherwood.news)StrategyInvestors love narratives. (klementoninvesting.substack.com)The skills needed for an investment commentator. (behaviouralinvestment.com)CryptoMore signs the digital asset treasury boom is over. (institutionalinvestor.com)More evidence that BInance didn't play by the rules. (wsj.com)Prediction marketsPolymarket and Kalshi argue that prediciton markets are 'the truth.' (bloomberg.com)Kalshi has removed all affiliate badges on X. (frontofficesports.com)Prediction markets bring up a lot of moral quandaries. (thediff.co)Fund managementDFA now manages $1 trillion in AUM. (riabiz.com)American firms increasingly dominate the global asset management business. (institutionalinvestor.com)Illiquidity risk is real. (caia.org)Private assetsLessons learned from ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF ($XOV

Personal finance links: big, boring decisions

Commodities

Wednesday links: pessimism sells

Market Expert Feb 26, 2026

MarketsConsumer staples now trade a premium to the Mag 7. (chartkidmatt.com)Emerging market equities have undeperformed U.S. stocks for well over a decade, until now. (stockmarketmedia.com)Financial stocks have given up all their relative outperformance. (trendlabs.com)FinanceNobody reads disclaimers. (ft.com)When sell-side research no longer moves markets. (rupakghose.substack.com)Prediction marketsKalshi has fined two people for insider trading. (npr.org)This guy bet his entire net worth on prediction markets, and won. (wsj.com)TechnologyApple ($AAPL) is trying to buy American-made chips. (wsj.com)With AI, everyone is getting into everyone else's business. (spyglass.org)Do users care which AI model they use? (sherwood.news)GLP-1sNovo Nordisk ($NVO) is extending the weight loss drug price war. (wsj.com)Derek Thompson talks GLP-1s with Eli Lilly ($LLY) CEO David Ricks. (podcasts.apple.com)EconomyIf 'housing is the business cycle' we should be concerned. (bonddad.blogspot.com)Some open

Commodities

Monday links: the proper role of tools

Market Expert Feb 24, 2026

MarketsWhy investors are focusing on companies that AI can't disrupt. (downtownjoshbrown.com)Why memecoins failed. (howardlindzon.com)CompaniesNvidia ($NVDA) is the biggest company in the world. Most consumers don't know its name. (spyglass.org)How Dollar General ($DG) took over rural America. (quartr.com)A profile of Constellation Brands ($STZ). (fiscal.ai)Fund managementThe ETF market is now a free-for-all. (wsj.com)The case against concentrated funds. (evidenceinvestor.com)How Blue Owl ($OWL) came to be at the center of private debt worries. (finance.yahoo.com)EconomyWhat companies are saying about the economy. (thetranscript.substack.com)How an aging America affects the housing market. (awealthofcommonsense.com)Some signs the economy is slowing. (bonddad.blogspot.com)Earlier on Abnormal ReturnsAdviser links: supercharged learning. (abnormalreturns.com)What you missed in our Sunday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)Top clicks last week on Abnormal Returns. (abnormalreturns.com)Don't mi

Commodities

Sunday links: a feedback loop of short-termism

Market Expert Feb 23, 2026

MarketsHow 'HALO' explains the 2026 stock market. (wsj.com)Bitcoin needs a new narrative. (finance.yahoo.com)Private assetsInvestors are not buying what Blue Owl ($OWL) is selling. (herbgreenberg.com)Boaz Weinstein’s Saba Capital wants to buy stakes in Blue Owl funds. (wsj.com)Why private equity loves the marina business. (ft.com)Venture capitalVC exits have become more diversified over time. (tomtunguz.com)Series A checks keep getting bigger. (pitchbook.com)AIThe pros and cons of AI. (awealthofcommonsense.com)Just how much the hyperscalers plan on spending in 2026. (apolloacademy.com)What explains the AI backlash? (nytimes.com)South Korea loves AI. (politico.com)TariffsNoah Smith, "What was the point of these tariffs? It has never really been clear." (noahpinion.blog)Tariff uncertainty isn't going anywhere. (apricitas.io)Trump is only digging in deeper. (emptywheel.net)Tariffs are still unpopular. (gelliottmorris.com)Companies are once again left in a lurch. (wsj.com)There are some

Commodities

Friday links: unexamined beliefs

Market Expert Feb 21, 2026

RegulationThe SEC has dramatically cut back on enforcement actions. (ft.com)Lax enforcement is allowing some ETFs to exceed position limits for private shares. (ft.com)Prediction marketsWhat's the argument for a prediction markets ETF? (joesaluzzi.substack.com)Is journalism infused with prediction markets better? (niemanlab.org)Private assetsSigns of deterioration in private credit quality. (morningstar.com)Private asset managers are being forced to comment on their stock prices. (ft.com)How 'NAV squeezing' works. (ft.com)TariffsThe Supreme Courts struck down Trump's 'emergency' tariffs. (npr.org)The court's ruling leaves a lot of open questions. (washingtonpost.com)How imports are affected. (nytimes.com)But there are some obvious winners. (frontofficesports.com)IranOn the strategic incoherence of Trump's Iran policy. (danieldrezner.substack.com)Iran's opposition is splintered. (theatlantic.com)MisconductOther countries take official misconduct seriously. (axios.com)Forget pardons, no

Personal finance links: the rationality spectrum

Commodities

Wednesday links: an emotional maelstrom

Market Expert Feb 20, 2026

MarketsPeople are finally waking up to international stock outperformance. (awealthofcommonsense.com)Apple ($AAPL) is trading on its own relative to its peers. (bloomberg.com)JP MorganJP Morgan Chase ($JPM) keeps opening up new retail locations. (ft.com)JP Morgan Chase ($JPM) opened a English style pub in its new HQ buildling. (wsj.com)CompaniesWhen it comes to his businesses, Elon Musk is an 'unreliable narrator.' (thezvi.substack.com)Bayer bought itself a mess when it acquired Monsanto. (axios.com)Palantir ($PLTR) CEO Alex Karp spends a lof of time in the air. (ft.com)Pre-IPOPowerlaw Corp. is direct listing a fund with stakes in Anduril, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic. (wealthmanagement.com)Robinhood ($HOOD) is lauching a closed-end fund with pre-IPO shares. (investing.com)AIWhy big AI IPOs would matter to the market. (om.co)Perplexity is dropping advertising. (searchengineland.com)How AI flattens language. (theregister.com)WorkThe office building market recovery is uneven at best. (ad

Commodities

Thursday links: annoyingly excited

Market Expert Feb 20, 2026

StrategyIt's naive to think publicly available data will help you pick stocks successfully. (ritholtz.com)Joe Wiggins, "If you want to understand how an investment team behaves, you really want to know what it measures, how and why." (behaviouralinvestment.com)FinanceThe CME ($CME) is set to launch 24/7 crypto futures trading. (theblock.co)Polymarket and Substack have a new partnership. (thehill.com)Morgan Stanley ($MS) is making it cheaper to trade on EquityZen. (fa-mag.com)Private assetsPrivate equity firms love cars wash companies. (pitchbook.com)Blue Owl ($OWL) has halted redemptions from one of its retail-focused private credit funds. (fa-mag.com)401(k) providers are succumbing to the siren's song of private assets. (finance.yahoo.com)The hedge fund rich keep getting richer. (bloomberg.com)StarlinkHow shutting down Russia's access to Starlink has affecting the Ukraine's front lines. (wsj.com)The U.S. has smuggled Starlink terminals into Iran. (independent.co.uk)GlobalTrump has eff

Commodities

Tuesday links: Bitcoin as speculative asset

Market Expert Feb 18, 2026

MarketsDollar bearishness is pretty high, all things considered. (ft.com)Big Tech is issuing bonds hand over fist in 2026, (axios.com)Shrinking share count is a global phenomenon. (snippet.finance)90% of global bonds trade below 5%. (apolloacademy.com)StrategyScary market headlines are the norm. However, over time the reasons change. (awealthofcommonsense.com)Why we have a tendency to overstate our willingness to take risk. (thedailyupside.com)The entrepreneur is more important than the business. (rockandturner.substack.com)Prediction marketsPrediction market traders are looking for an edge, any edge. (npr.org)Prediction markets are sports betting. (frontofficesports.com)Betting on military action, brings out potential insider traders. (nbcnews.com)FinanceNetflix ($NFLX) is telling Paramount ($PARA) to put up or shut up. (spyglass.org)Why Elliott Management Corp. targeted the London Stock Exchange. (bloomberg.com)The two big Chicago exchanges are trading at all-time highs. (trendlabs.c

Commodities

Sunday links: absolute vs. relative terms

Market Expert Feb 17, 2026

MarketsRisk is inherent in the stock market, concentration or not. (wsj.com)The U.S. stock market still trades at a premium to the rest of the world. (apolloacademy.com)The stock market is betting on hard infrastructure. (tomtunguz.com)Endowment fundsEndowment fund managers are being forced to rethink their private equity allocations. (wsj.com)College endowments withdrew a record amount of capital in FY 2025. (pitchbook.com)A look at recent endowment fund performance. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com)FinanceHow big is private credit's exposure to software? (msn.com)Tokenization is real, and also kind of irrelevant. (etf.com)Once more into the ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF ($XOVR) breach. (jeffreyptak.substack.com)VCsThe VC taboo about investing in portfolio company competitors is over. (bloomberg.com)It's now quite normal for startup founders and employees to sell shares before an IPO. (wsj.com)AIOn the surge in AI deal making. (tomtunguz.com)Good luck trying to pick AI winners and l