Category: Commodities

Commodities

Sunday links: the age of uncertainty

Market Expert May 5, 2026

MarketsTech stocks are outrunning their earnings. (chartkidmatt.com)The AI trade is booming, so is degneracy. (howardlindzon.com)Are markets complacent about cybersecurity risks? (tker.co)ETFsOn the risks of autocallable ETFs. (wsj.com)The more Wall Street is selling something, the faster you should run away. (humbledollar.com)The fight over mega-IPO index inclusion is a reminder there is no such thing as 'passive' investing. (wsj.com)Retirement plansExpanding access to retirement plans is a good thing. (semafor.com)The case against alternatives in 401(k) plans. (institutionalinvestor.com)CompaniesThe megacap companies shouldn't be able to grow as fast as they are. (gettheleverage.com)Apple ($AAPL) is actually reducing capex. (sherwood.news)Everybody wants to build THE super-app. (spyglass.org)Elon loves related party transactions. (sherwood.news)Berkshire HathawayBerkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) now holds nearly $400 billion in cash equivalents. (fortune.com)Don't hold your breath waiti

Commodities

Monday links: ignoring geopolitical turmoil

Market Expert May 5, 2026

StrategyInternational stocks are finally having a moment. (morningstar.com)On the hunt for 100-baggers. (downtownjoshbrown.com)Alternatives What the big alternative asset managers are saying about Q1. (altgoesmainstream.substack.com)Does PE belong in your 401(k) plan? (alphaarchitect.com)Berkshire HathawayBerkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) trades like an anti-AI trade. (sherwood.news)Greg Abel feels no urgency to spend down Berkshire's ($BRK.A) cash pile. (kingswell.io)Prediction marketsWhales are earning profits on prediction markets, minnows not so much. (wsj.com)How Kalshi plans to keep children off the platform. (axios.com)GlobalUkraine had no plans of becoming a leading exporter of drone technology, but here we are. (newatlas.com)On the dangers of pulling troops out of Germany. (thebulwark.com)Oil is raining from the sky in parts of Russia. (msn.com)EconomyThe U.S. has not sidestepped energy market chaos. (ft.com)It's the mega caps that are spending big on capex. (apollo.com)How worr

Commodities

Thursday links: limited scarce assets

Market Expert May 2, 2026

MarketsHow Treasury rates have risen since the onset of war. (capitalspectator.com)Oil prices are at their highest level since the beginning of the Iran war. (axios.com)How gas prices are moving in response. (sherwood.news)StrategyThe economy is not the stock market, and vice versa. (edgyoptimist.substack.com)Jon, "A diversified portfolio, in its simplest form, creates multiple ways to grow your money while building in survivability from market downturns." (novelinvestor.com)IPOsFour scenarios for the SpaceX IPO. (acadian-asset.com)SoftBank is planning to list in the U.S. an AI and robotics company called Roze. (ft.com)TradingIndian HFT Graviton Research Capital wants to go global. (bloomberg.com)Citadel Securities is big in European bond trading. (ft.com)Military action bets on Polymarket have a different payoff profile. (arstechnica.com)Fund managementWhy you should avoid the most volatile funds. (morningstar.com)Closed-end funds always face a challenge from investors. (pitchbook.c

Commodities

Friday links: insane obstacles

Market Expert May 2, 2026

April 2026The S&P 500 returned 10.49% in April 2026. (on.spdji.com)How major asset classes performed in April. (capitalspectator.com)MarketsMarc Rubenstein, "Arbitrage is a broad term and it’s often misused." (netinterest.co)Lessons learned from the semiconductor stock melt up. (scheplick.com)There are still opportunities to dig around in microcaps. (microcapclub.com)Investing success depends on path dependency. (rockandturner.substack.com)Prediction marketsThe Senate has banned Senators and their staff from trading on prediction markets. (politico.com)Clear Street is teaming up with Kalshi to give its hedge fund clients access. (bloomberg.com)SpaceXA lot of people think they own SpaceX shares. Some will be disabused. (nytimes.com)S&P is ready to cave to the coming mega IPOs to make for earlier index entry. (msn.com)Blue Owl funds sold half their SpaceX stake at a $1.25 billion valuation. (reuters.com)AICloud businesses saw soaring revenue in Q1. (tomtunguz.com)Apple ($AAPL) is side

Personal finance links: the full cost of college

Commodities

Wednesday links: fighting financial nihilism

Market Expert Apr 30, 2026

StrategyWhy doomsayers are more wrong than not. (awealthofcommonsense.com)Why the promise of emerging markets has fallen short. (morningstar.com)Small traders on Polymarkets are net-net money losers. (bloomberg.com)CompaniesThe audio business needs to consolidate. (axios.com)Some real doozies from this year's round of proxies. (ft.com)The elevator business is consolidating. (cnbc.com)AIBright Simons, "The AI industry is telling a story about the future of work that goes roughly like this: automate what can be automated, augment what remains, and trust that the productivity gains will compound into a wealthier, more efficient world." (theideasletter.org)Google and Meta are using AI to drive their advertising businesses to new heights. (nytimes.com)AI companies are pushing hard to build data centers. Opponents are trying to slow things down. (arstechnica.com)AI resentment is growing. (axios.com)HealthHow Amazon ($AMZN) really wants you to be your pharmacy. (sherwood.news)Europe has autho

Adviser links: controlling the controllable

Commodities

Monday links: beliefs and behaviors

Market Expert Apr 29, 2026

FinanceInvestors are swapping their private BDCs for public BDCs. (wsj.com)The private equity industry has changed a lot over the years. (investmentecosystem.com)Amazon-backed X-Energy ($XE) is now public. (pitchbook.com)LayoffsBig Tech is using layoffs to afford more AI. (wsj.com)A look at this year's big corporate layoffs, so far. (wsj.com)AppleApple ($AAPL) is on track to be the biggest phone seller in China. (sherwood.news)Apple ($AAPL) Macs are the only PCs made for AI. (om.co)How to take full advantage of your Apple ($AAPL) Watch. (pogueman.substack.com)AIThe AI data center backlash is growing. (nytimes.com)Your Slacks and e-mails are being used to train AI. (futurism.com)Could AI companies get nationalized? (theatlantic.com)EconomyCompanies are saying consumers are in good shape. (thetranscript.substack.com)The rest of the world is disproportionately feeling the pain of the Iran war. (nytimes.com)Why the choice of inflation measure matters for policy. (newsletter.mikekonczal.com

Commodities

Tuesday links: revolutionary technologies

Market Expert Apr 29, 2026

MarketsWhy poor consumer confidence shouldn't deter you from investing. (trendlabs.com)Small caps are leading YTD. (stockmarketmedia.com)Private assetsGood luck trying to find a semi-liquid private equity fund that will outperform over the long run. (morningstar.com)It's easy to forget that private equity will feel the pain before private credit in a generalized downturn. (mailchi.mp)Just how accurate are private equity marks? (hntrbrk.com)CompaniesCEOs see an window to do merger deals that would never have gone through before. (semafor.com)Reddit ($RDDT) is at the mercy of search, AI and advertisers. (ft.com)OpenAIMissed projections and big outlays are putting pressure on OpenAI leadership. (futurism.com)Is the unwinding of the OpenAI-Microsoft ($MSFT) deal going to help? (spyglass.org)Why OpenAI pivoted to an Anthropic-like business model. (theatlantic.com)WorkJim Pethokoukis talks work and AI with Prof. Daniel Rock. (fasterplease.substack.com)Is California's job situation an omen f

Commodities

Sunday links: the urge to create

Market Expert Apr 27, 2026

MarketsThe stock market serves to confuse you. (awealthofcommonsense.com)There are plenty of reasons why a stock can stumble. (humbledollar.com)Sam Ro, "At the end of the day, publicly traded companies aren’t out here to sell a product. They’re out here to allocate capital, make money, and increase shareholder value. Sometimes, this means shifting focus away from the original product the company was known for." (tker.co)CryptoHow does Strategy ($MSTR) afford the dividends on its preferred stock? (ft.com)How did this year's $TRUMP memecoin event go? (nytimes.com)Tennessee is the second state to ban crypto ATMs. (theblock.co)ETFsChecking in on the market for single-stock ETFs. (etf.com)Why institutional investors are increasingly utilizing ETFs. (institutionalinvestor.com)The line between active and passive is more nuanced than you think. (etf.com)MuskThe 'Musk Multiple' is real. (gettheleverage.com)How Musk took personal loans from SpaceX. (nytimes.com)CompaniesNvidia ($NVDA) is as mu

Commodities

Friday links: corporate catering

Market Expert Apr 26, 2026

HFTJane Street Group crushed it in 2025. (bloomberg.com)HFT firms are investing big in compute. (wsj.com)Prediction marketsA Special Forces solider was arrested for insider trading on Polymarket. (wapo.st)Now Wisconsin is suing the major prediction market companies. (theblock.co)France is investigating an odd insider Polymarket-related case. (npr.org)Private assetsPrivate equity secondaries are now joined by tertiaries. (cashandcarried.substack.com)Funding raising for 'digital infrastructure' is off the charts. (pitchbook.com)SpaceXThe value of the SpaceX is a moving target, thanks to Elon. (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com)An investment in SpaceX is a big bet on Elon. (newcomer.co)AIGoogle ($GOOGL) is dropping $10 billion, at least, into Anthropic. (bloomberg.com)Meta ($META) and Microsoft ($MSFT) are doing big layoffs. (theguardian.com)Tae Kim talks with OpenAI cofounder and president Greg Brockman. (taekim.substack.com)GLP-1sA Q&A with Dave Ricks, CEO of Eli Lilly ($LLY). (semafor.com)G

Commodities

Thursday links: American sadness

Market Expert Apr 24, 2026

ETFsThe Roundhill Memory ETF ($DRAM) has quickly garnered more than $1 billion in AUM. (wsj.com)Eric Balchunas and Joel Weber talk with Bloomberg Intelligence semiconductor analyst Jake Silverman about the growth in $DRAM. (bloomberg.com)Prediction marketsKalshi penalized three US congressional candidates for wagering on own campaigns. (cnbc.com)Research shows traders systematically overbid YES markets. (papers.ssrn.com)AITen things that matter in AI right now including 'weaponized deepfakes.' (technologyreview.com)How AI use tamps down on brain activity. (paulkedrosky.com)Can AI spot counterfeited art? (smithsonianmag.com)CompaniesAnthropic is booming, but issues are popping up. (axios.com)Power suppliers like GE Vernova ($GEV) are seeing big jumps in backlogs. (sherwood.news)Google ($GOOGL) has been quiet on the AI front of late. (semafor.com)Software stocks are all trading together. (sherwood.news)CEOsCompanies are turning to older CEOs. (fa-mag.com)Why CEOs are getting older over t