Category: Commodities

Commodities

Sunday links: intellectual depth

Market Expert Dec 22, 2025

Markets8 market lessons from 2025 including 'Stocks are spending less time in the S&P 500.' (tker.co)2025 put a nail in the coffin of the 'Bitcoin is digital gold' argument. (economist.com)CPG stocks no longer seem to act as a safe haven. (wsj.com)StrategyWant to get rich, concentrate? Want to get poor, concentrate. (awealthofcommonsense.com)Path dependence matters more than you realize. (thefinancialpen.substack.com)FinanceThe growth in retail investing has changed how institutional investors approach the market. (howardlindzon.com)BDCs are having a rough year with many trading well below NAV. (wsj.com)Why LPs don't typically sue GPs. (cashandcarried.substack.com)Deal makingThe TikTok deal solves nothing, and actually makes things worse. (wsj.com)Trump's 'peace deals' keep falling apart. (wapo.st)PardonsHow the Trump pardon machine operates. (giftarticle.ft.com)A visualization of the Trump pardon spree. (wsj.com)ImmigrationRoger Lowenstein, "The Trump Administration is racing to undo

Commodities

Friday links: the risks they’re taking

Market Expert Dec 21, 2025

MarketsHow did the 'Sell America' trade work out? (etf.com)Six simple ways to improve investment performance. (awealthofcommonsense.com)DegeneracyThe line between gambling and investing has been obliterated. (barrons.com)Why younger generations are betting their brains out. (wsj.com)Prediction marketsPrediction markets have quickly become dependent on sports. (ft.com)The DraftKings Predictions app has launched. (sportico.com)Fund managementHow the Bluerock Private Real Estate Fund ($BPRE) fell to nearly a 40% discount to NAV. (wsj.com)The best and worst new ETFs of 2025. (morningstar.com)AIHow many businesses are actually using AI? (agglomerations.substack.com)Technology booms rarely go off without a hitch. (econofact.org)GlobalBrexit: a bad policy, poorly implemented. (ft.com)Why China's population is set to decline. (axios.com)Earlier on Abnormal ReturnsPodcast links: the history of money. (abnormalreturns.com)What you missed in our Thursday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)Longform l

Commodities

Thursday links: the top of his game

Market Expert Dec 19, 2025

FinanceCoinbase ($COIN) is launching stock trading and prediction markets. (cnbc.com)Charles Schwab ($SCHW) is shutting down Schwab Intelligent Portfolios Premium. (thedailyupside.com)TrumpTrump Media ($DJT) is merging with a nuclear fusion company TAE Technologies. (cnbc.com)Which seemingly ends the push into Bitcoin. (ft.com)Mapping out the growing Trump business empire. (wsj.com)StreamingThe Oscars are headed to YouTube. (hollywoodreporter.com)Streaming companies are now the underdog. (spyglass.org)Howard Lindzon talks with Farhad Massoudi, founder of Tubi, about the case against Netflix ($NFLX) buying Warner Bros. ($WBD). (youtube.com)RoombaYou can blame the regulators for the death of Roomba. (spyglass.org)Why Roomba never really took off. (theatlantic.com)EconomyFalling shelter prices kept November CPI in check. (bonddad.blogspot.com)Still no meaningful pickup in weekly unemployment claims. (calculatedriskblog.com)How to think about the Sahm Rule, at present. (macromostly.substac

Longform links: superintelligence rhetoric

Commodities

Tuesday links: reversion to the mean

Market Expert Dec 18, 2025

BooksThree investment book recommendations including: "What I Learned About Investing From Darwin" by Pulak Prasad. (flyoverstocks.com)A positive review for Andrew Ross Sorkin's new book "1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History — and How It Shattered a Nation." (advisorperspectives.com)Lessons learned from 2025 book reading including 'Culture compounds.' (mastersinvest.com)ETFsBlackrock ($BLK) just launched the iShares Total USD Fixed Income Market ETF ($BTOT). (riabiz.com)BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard did little to support activist nominees in proxy fights this year. (semafor.com)AIWhat happens when a big data center comes to town. (sherwood.news)Oracle ($ORCL) debt is getting re-rated, and not in a good way. (tomtunguz.com)What's behind the decline in Coreweave ($CRWV) stock? (wsj.com)VC funding for AI in 2025, the charts. (news.crunchbase.com)Poverty lineNick Maggiulli, "Regardless of what you believe about the true poverty line, it’s fair to say that it’s far

Personal finance links: a lack of spending

Commodities

Wednesday links: running out of time

Market Expert Dec 18, 2025

StrategyInvestors are suckers for a good growth story. (behaviouralinvestment.com)Diversification as 'survival insurance.' (safalniveshak.com)Investors will only wait so long for a factor to pay off. (klementoninvesting.substack.com)FinanceMedline ($MDLN) is the biggest IPO of 2025. (cnbc.com)How JP Morgan ($JPM) has transformed their balance sheet. (ft.com)Robinhood ($HOOD) is rolling out even more prediction market functionality. (axios.com)How prop trading firms entice new users. (bloomberg.com)Fund managementWhy is the Bluerock Private Real Estate Fund ($BPRE) trading at a big discount to NAV? (giftarticle.ft.com)Virtus ($VRTS) is pushing deeper into private markets. (citywire.com)Small 401(k) plans typically pay higher fees. Providers have come up with a 'solution.' (morningstar.com)StartupsNow Amazon ($AMZN) could invest in OpenAI. (techcrunch.com)Databricks is reportedly raising capital at a $134 billion valuation. (wsj.com)Waymo is looking to raise capital at a $100 billion val

Commodities

Monday links: collective human intelligence

Market Expert Dec 16, 2025

MarketsHow inflation regimes affect returns for stocks and bonds. (awealthofcommonsense.com)The Fed does not control the long end of the curve. (advisorperspectives.com)The four O's of market bubbles including 'over-ownership.' (ft.com)FinanceCharles Schwab ($SCHW) is reluctant to follow competitors into high octane offerings like prediction markets. (wsj.com)Why you should be way of EGCs, or Emerging Growth Companies, many of which trade be $1 a share. (wsj.com)Fund managementBlackRock ($BLK) now managed $80 billion for Citigroup’s private banking clients globally. (wealthmanagement.com)Invesco ($IVZ) isn't done with recalcitrant $QQQ shareholders. (ft.com)JP Morgan ($JPM) is creating a tokenized money market fund. (wsj.com)EconomyNational homebuilder confidence has been negative for 20 months straight. (calculatedriskblog.com)Why 2% inflation may no longer be an option. (macroeconomicpolicynexus.substack.com)Why high prices continue to impact American consumers. (crr.bc.edu)Earlier

Commodities

Sunday links: concentration of big winners

Market Expert Dec 15, 2025

MarketsMarket concentration in a bull market is a feature, not a bug. (downtownjoshbrown.com)Valuations don't tell you much about what happens the next year. (tker.co)How have Wall Street strategists done with their price forecasts? (chartkidmatt.com)The week in the degenerate economy. (howardlindzon.com)CompaniesSpaceX is buying employee shares at a $800 billion valuation. (cnbc.com)Failed media mergers are the norm, not the exception. (wapo.st)Fund managementMichael Sidgmore, "The asset management industry is in the early innings of the convergence of public and private." (altgoesmainstream.substack.com)We need more fund fee transparency, not less. (morningstar.com)ImmigrationNow legal immigration has ground to a halt. (axios.com)What the numbers say about the economic impact of refugees on the American economy. (wsj.com)A profile of Gregory Bovino of the US Border Patrol. (chicago.suntimes.com)Crime and punishmentIRS tax prosecutions have plunged in 2025. (yahoo.com)Apparently mortg

Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Commodities

Sunday links: hedging and speculation

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

MarketsWhen a company with Time or Warner in the name gets acquired, look out. (ft.com)Be wary of IPOs raising less than $15 million. (barrons.com)StrategyBoring investing still works. (awealthofcommonsense.com)How to consume Wall Street strategist content. (tker.co)Are index funds to blame for high stock prices? (humbledollar.com)DegeneracyWhat's the common thread among options trading, sports betting, and memecoins? (dopaminemarkets.com)This week in the degenerate economy including prediction markets tying up with media companies. (youtube.com)Prediction markets are setting up their own proprietary market making units. (advisorperspectives.com)Crypto2025 was supposed to be the year of crypto. What happened? (giftarticle.ft.com)Why this bank lowered its price target on Strategy ($MSTR) by some 60%. (ft.com)ETFsConvertible bond ETFs are having a year. (etf.com)Vanguard is stepping up its new ETF activity. (thinkadvisor.com)HollywoodCan Netflix ($NFLX) avoid ruining HBO? (nytimes.com)Th

Commodities

Monday links: the threat of YouTube

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

MarketsA look at the new MSCI All Country Public + Private Equity Index. (axios.com)A look at the historical returns of the Nasdaq 100. (awealthofcommonsense.com)Lower borrowing costs are available to smaller funds. (mailchi.mp)CryptoInvestors in iShares Bitcoin ETF Trust ($IBIT) haven't fared as well as Bitcoin itself. (morningstar.com)The 'digital gold' argument for Bitcoin looks suss. (cnbc.com)Strategy ($MSTR) isn't done buying Bitcoin. (theblock.co)DegeneracyRobinhood ($HOOD) is entering Indonesia. (cnbc.com)If you put a real-money casino on people's phones they play...a lot. (nytimes.com)More and more financial products are removed from reality. (mojo3324106.substack.com)Berkshire HathawayA rare executive shakeup at Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A). (cnbc.com)Berkshire has 'cleared the table' for CEO to-be Greg Abel (kingswell.io)NetflixThe battle for Warner Bros. ($WBD) is now public as Paramount Skydance ($PSKY) launches an offer. (variety.com)YouTube is THE threat to Netflix ($NFLX