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Commodities

Monday links: collective human intelligence

Market Expert Dec 16, 2025

MarketsHow inflation regimes affect returns for stocks and bonds. (awealthofcommonsense.com)The Fed does not control the long end of the curve. (advisorperspectives.com)The four O's of market bubbles including 'over-ownership.' (ft.com)FinanceCharles Schwab ($SCHW) is reluctant to follow competitors into high octane offerings like prediction markets. (wsj.com)Why you should be way of EGCs, or Emerging Growth Companies, many of which trade be $1 a share. (wsj.com)Fund managementBlackRock ($BLK) now managed $80 billion for Citigroup’s private banking clients globally. (wealthmanagement.com)Invesco ($IVZ) isn't done with recalcitrant $QQQ shareholders. (ft.com)JP Morgan ($JPM) is creating a tokenized money market fund. (wsj.com)EconomyNational homebuilder confidence has been negative for 20 months straight. (calculatedriskblog.com)Why 2% inflation may no longer be an option. (macroeconomicpolicynexus.substack.com)Why high prices continue to impact American consumers. (crr.bc.edu)Earlier

Analysis

Money, Fear, and the Stories We Tell About the Economy

Market Expert Dec 16, 2025

I joined Dave Pederson on his new “Bigfoot” podcast to talk about a few Market Myths. You may recognize his name. He is an award-winning documentary filmmaker and producer best known for Super Size Me and Americonned. The post Money, Fear, and the Stories We Tell About the Economy appeared first on The Big Picture.

U.S. stock futures little changed ahead of year’s last full week of trading

Stocks risk a stir-up in last trading push of the year. Where to put your money.

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My mother-in-law, 81, is guilting us into paying for her ‘bucket list’ trip to Italy. Do we say no?

Stock

The deadline to enroll in Obamacare is Monday if you want coverage to start Jan. 1

Market Expert Dec 15, 2025

The subsidies that made Affordable Care Act plans more affordable are expiring, and marketplace coverage in 2026 will be much more expensive.

Stock

Hassett says Trump would have ‘no weight’ on Fed’s decision-making if he’s chair

Market Expert Dec 15, 2025

Kevin Hassett, President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, on Sunday dismissed concerns that he would simply push Trump’s agenda if he’s chosen as the next Fed chair.

Commodities

Sunday links: concentration of big winners

Market Expert Dec 15, 2025

MarketsMarket concentration in a bull market is a feature, not a bug. (downtownjoshbrown.com)Valuations don't tell you much about what happens the next year. (tker.co)How have Wall Street strategists done with their price forecasts? (chartkidmatt.com)The week in the degenerate economy. (howardlindzon.com)CompaniesSpaceX is buying employee shares at a $800 billion valuation. (cnbc.com)Failed media mergers are the norm, not the exception. (wapo.st)Fund managementMichael Sidgmore, "The asset management industry is in the early innings of the convergence of public and private." (altgoesmainstream.substack.com)We need more fund fee transparency, not less. (morningstar.com)ImmigrationNow legal immigration has ground to a halt. (axios.com)What the numbers say about the economic impact of refugees on the American economy. (wsj.com)A profile of Gregory Bovino of the US Border Patrol. (chicago.suntimes.com)Crime and punishmentIRS tax prosecutions have plunged in 2025. (yahoo.com)Apparently mortg

Analysis

10 Sunday Reads

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • Legendary short seller James Chanos on the problem with Strategy’s business model: The noise has grown louder about Strategy being in trouble, but most experts think Strategy can weather the current bitcoin downturn, though one critic predicts this is “the beginning of… Read More The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Analysis

10 Monday AM Reads

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Trump’s Tariffs Could Be Overturned. Companies Are Rushing to Get Refunds. Dozens of importers, including major companies, are filing lawsuits to preserve their right to tariff refunds ahead of a key December 15 deadline.The Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on the legality of tariffs, with potential… Read More The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Analysis

Transcript: Paul Zummo, CIO, JPMAAM

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Paul Zummo, Chief Investment Officer of J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~… Read More The post Transcript: Paul Zummo, CIO, JPMAAM appeared first on The Big Picture.

Analysis

Whatever Happened to NFTs?

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

Last week’s Sturgeon’s Corollary generated a bit of pushback. The most relevant questions were about ETFs as a group: “Surely, 90% of all ETFs are not crap” was a theme. Do the math: As of last count, there are 4,297 ETFs; as a comparison, there are only ~3,500 publicly traded equities (but ~2… Read More The post Whatever Happened to NFTs? appeared first on The Big Picture.

Analysis

Whose Inflation Is This?

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

Perhaps the most overlooked element in the “affordability hoax” is the president’s own role in it. Before we get into the details, a few preliminary caveats. First, as COVID-19 ran wild, lockdowns were beginning, and a vaccine was still off in the future, there was genuine panic spreading through the government. Hobson’s choice The… Read More The post Whose Inflation Is This? appeared first on The Big Picture.

Analysis

10 Thursday AM Reads

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

My busy-all-day-and-night morning reads: • Are retail traders the captains now? It’s often easy to laugh at retail traders as they post loss porn on Reddit, insist Strategy’s strategy is sound, buy Bonk ETFs, argue that Bed Bath & Beyond’s cancelled shares are worth something, and pump up fried chicken, quantum computing and small modular reactor… Read More The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Analysis

10 Friday AM Reads

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Howard Marks: Is It a Bubble? Ours is a remarkable moment in world history. A transformative technology is ascending, and its supporters claim it will forever change the world. To build it requires companies to invest a sum of money unlike anything in living memory. News reports are… Read More The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Analysis

At The Money: Year-End Tax Planning Time

Market Expert Dec 13, 2025

At The Money: Year-End Tax Planning Moves with Bill Artzerounian, RWM (December 11, 2025) There is still time to make some smart moves to reduce your 2025 taxes. You have to be proactive to take advantage of the latest changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. But you better hurry –… Read More The post At The Money: Year-End Tax Planning Time appeared first on The Big Picture.