Friday links: suspect motives

BondsThe Treasury flight-to-safety trade isn't working. (panoptica.ai)Sovereign bond markets are not panicking. (ft.com)StrategyUncertainty is inherent in investing. Prepare accordingly. (awealthofcommonsense.com)Before you invest in a novel investment ask - why? (morningstar.com)Prediction marketsPrediction markets are the hot new thing on college campuses. (wsj.com)How prediction markets make us more uncertain about the world. (theatlantic.com)Prediction market participants love college basketball. (frontofficesports.com)Private assetsOn the paradoxical performance of the ERShares Public-Private Crossover ($XOVR). (wsj.com)Robinhood Ventures Fund I ($RVI) is now trading. (barrons.com)Another day, another private credit fund is hit with substantial withdrawal requests. (ft.com)Beware claims about private credit fund returns. (thealtview.substack.com)IranThe war is costing nearly $1 billion a day. (phys.org)Russia is providing Iran with targeting information. (wapo.st)How a closing