“Core” CPI Challenge

Last week, I mentioned the long, distasteful history of governments deliberately underreporting inflation data.

It drew surprising pushback — especially given the chronological list I shared:

1944-45: Mitchell Committee
1953: Postwar Basket Revisions.
1961: Stigler Committee
1972-75: Core Inflation
1983: Owners’ equivalent rent
1995–96: Boskin Commission
2017: Chained CPI as fiscal policy
2000: Fed changes its target to PCE
2004: Fed changes its target to Core PCE
2020–26: Annualizing
2025: Suspending CPI

Those are the major historical changes designed to underreport inflation; I tried — but failed — to find similar actions that overreported inflation.

Hence, I characterize the focus on Core as a deliberate attempt to mislead an audience.1

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To those who waived off the hot October 14th CPI print of 3.7%, including Food & Energy, and chose to focus instead on the much milder Core of 2.6% — here is my Core CPI challenge: You may focus on Core inflation, so long as you limit your consumption to only the goods included in the Core PCE/CPI.

Until the November 10 CPI release, you must avoid consuming any headline goods (same for the recent 6.3% PPI versus 5% Core PPI). You only have to wait until November 13 to consume food, beverages, travel, heat, electricity, etc.

What is in the Core? 

You can buy all the new and used cars and trucks you want, plus tires and replacement parts! Just no gas or diesel. Shop for Clothing, jewelry, watches, and shoes, too — walking is healthy! I can’t say I know how you’re gonna process the transaction without energy.

Computers, smartphones, televisions, audio equipment, and software; medical goods, prescriptions/over-the-counter drugs, recreational goods, toys, sporting equipment, musical instruments, books, pet products, textbooks, school supplies, shampoo, toothpaste, cosmetics, razors, and perfume. Buy home furnishings, mattresses, carpets, appliances, and household supplies. And Bicycles — you can carry your new mattress home on a bike! Just no E-Bikes.

Tap water! Fasting and exercise can be very healthy!

Do you smoke? Tobacco is in the core — so is Alcohol for when you get bored of tap water…

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That is my Core CPI challenge for any pundit discussing inflation: Skip the full headline inflation reading to discuss inflation ex-food and energy, and you must exclude food and energy until the next print.

Below you will find a handy set of inflation report calendars to let you know when you can buy gas, use electricity, or eat again…

Previously:
The Long History of Underreporting Inflation (October 19, 2026)

The History of Inflation ex-inflation (September 23, 2005)

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1. In the event of a sudden and unexpected weather calamity, of course, you can disregard that lone print. But I mean a major earthquake or a Hurricane Sandy — not “Gee, it got cold in February…”

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